Manager-- Loss Forecasting

Overview

Who we are

To save time applying, Toyota does not offer sponsorship of job applicants for employment-based visas or any other work authorization for this position at this time. 

These positions are based at the Toyota Headquarters in Plano, TX. 

Who we're looking for  

TFSB is a major contributor to TFS profitability and is entering an exciting new phase of growth, expanding both its product portfolio and private label business lines. Your models will shape how we price, reserve, and grow responsibly. You’ll own the CECL loss forecasting engine for a national auto finance bank—building models, discovering signal, automating monitoring, and turning complex outputs into clear decisions for senior leaders
 

The Manager, Loss Forecasting leads the end‑to‑end design, development, and continuous improvement of Toyota Financial Savings Bank’s CECL‑compliant allowance for credit losses (ACL) models across consumer and commercial portfolios. The role combines hands‑on modeling (feature engineering, champion/challenger development, back‑testing, and performance monitoring) with executive‑facing insight generation that directly informs capital planning, pricing, portfolio strategy, and emerging‑risk decisions.
 

Partnering with Accounting, Compliance, Data Science, Data & Analytics, Finance, Information Digital Systems, and Treasury, this leader advances a modern analytics roadmap—strengthening forecast accuracy, automation, and explainability—while meeting all governance expectations (SOX, documentation, model use, audit support). The Manager mentors a team of 1–5 analysts, serves as the primary bridge between Credit Risk leadership and external stakeholders (including internal control and audit), and helps drive strategic initiatives such as the Multi‑Tenant Model, Impairment Studio, and Enterprise Data Platform adoption.

What you'll be doing  

Build & evolve loss forecasting models

• Lead champion/challenger development for CECL ACL forecasting across consumer & commercial portfolios: feature engineering, model selection (statistical & ML), stability tests, sensitivity analysis, and back‑testing. Translate model results into business actions that impact reserves, pricing, and portfolio strategy.

Monitoring, analytics & automation

• Design production‑grade monitoring for inputs/outputs, data quality, drift, and performance; create executive‑ready dashboards; and automate quarter‑close analytics and reporting.

Executive storytelling & partnership

• Deliver concise, visual insights to senior leadership; advise on trend drivers and forward risks; lead cross‑functional read‑outs with Accounting, Finance, Treasury, Data Science, and Compliance.

Data partnerships & pipeline readiness

• Work with Data & Analytics and Information Digital Systems to improve data accessibility, lineage, and reliability for modeling. Support enterprise data platform adoption and related initiatives.

Governance & audit

• Execute key SOX controls, maintain thorough documentation, and present to internal/external audit each quarter to ensure timely, well‑supported closes.
   

What you bring  

• Four-Year College Degree (BA or BS in Computer Science, Statistics, Analytics, Actuarial Science, Mathematics, Finance or related field.) 
• At least 5-10 years of experience working in credit risk at a Bank or Lending institution.
• Hands‑on modeling experience in Python/SQL and building production‑ready analytics with clear documentation and version control.
• Demonstrated experience turning complex model output into concise, visual executive insights.
• Experience communicating and collaborating across technical and non‑technical partners; with the ability to lead through influence.

Added bonus if you have

• Advanced Degree: Finance, Operations Research, Data Science
• Background in consumer lending or financial services (auto strongly preferred).
• 10+ years of experience working within credit risk modeling (PD/LGD/EAD), CECL/IFRS 9, stress testing, macro‑conditioning, and scenario analysis.
• Experience with model risk governance and audit: documentation, challenger benchmarking, SOX/controls, and engagement with internal/external audit.
• Experience mentoring or managing data scientists/analysts; comfortable overseeing concurrent priorities and cross‑team deliverables.

Belonging at Toyota

Our success begins and ends with our people. We embrace all perspectives and value unique human experiences. Respect for all is our North Star. Toyota is proud to have 10+ different Business Partnering Groups across 100 different North American chapter locations that support team members’ efforts to dream, do and grow without questioning that they belong.

Applicants for our positions are considered without regard to race, ethnicity, national origin, sex, sexual orientation, gender identity or expression, age, disability, religion, military or veteran status, or any other characteristics protected by law.

Have a question, need assistance with your application or do you require any special accommodations? Please send an email to talent.acquisition@toyota.com.